The No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (1-2) host the No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (2-1) for Game 4 of their Western Conference semifinals playoff series. Sunday’s tip-off at the American Airlines Center is set for 3:30 pm ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Suns vs. Mavericks odds and linesand make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Dallas got back into this series with a 103-94 win Friday in Game 3, despite being outperformed in 3 of the “4 factors”. Phoenix continuously shot itself in the foot and Dallas attempted 14 more field goals in the game.
The Suns had a 17.1% offensive turnover rate (TOV%) and allowed 22 second-chance points in Game 3, well off their regular-season marks of 12.9% offensive TOV% (4th) and 14.8 second-chance points per game allowed ( 4th).
Dallas combo guard Jalen Brunson had a bounce-back effort at home, scoring 28 points on 47.6% shooting (7 of 7 from the foul line) with 4 rebounds, 5 assists and no turnovers.
The Mavs’ Game 3 victory was their first vs. Phoenix since the Suns acquired future Hall-of-Fame PG Chris Paul prior to last season. Dallas is 1-8 straight up (SU) and 3-5 against the spread (ATS) vs. Phoenix in the last 2 seasons.
Mavericks at Suns odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:28 am ET.
- Money line (ML): Suns -140 (bet $ 140 to win $ 100) | Mavericks +115 (bet $ 100 to win $ 115)
- Against the spread: Suns -2.5 (-110) | Mavericks +2.5 (-110)
- Over / Under: 214.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Mavericks at Suns key injuries
Mavericks at Suns picks and predictions
Suns 109, Mavericks 103
BET the SUNS (-140) because they will not repeat the mistakes that cost them Game 3. Phoenix outshot Dallas from everywhere on the floor and had a plus-9 rebound differential, but just kept giving the ball back to the Mavs.
Also, the Suns perform much better than the Mavs in close games. Phoenix is 6-2 SU in games decided by 3 points or less and 5-1 ATS as 1-to-2.5-point favorites. Dallas is 7-5 SU in games within a 3-point margin and 7-5 ATS as 1-to-2.5-point underdogs.
Phoenix had the best regular-season clutch record (33-9 SU) and net rating (plus-33.9) whereas Dallas was 25th in clutch net rating this season (minus-9.1). “Clutch” is defined by games within a 5-point margin inside of 5 minutes to play.
Suns coach Monty Williams should make the necessary adjustments and Phoenix’s All-Star backcourt of CP3 and Devin Booker will perform better Sunday after no-shows Friday.
BET the SUNS (-140).
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Slight LEAN to the SUNS -2.5 (-110) because they should win Game 4 by margin, but I’m confident enough to spend a little extra for Phoenix’s ML.
Also, we’d be getting the worst of the number since the Suns opened as 1.5-point favorites but market steam has made Phoenix more expensive.
LEAN to the UNDER 214.5 (-110) since there’s a line freeze in the betting market for the total, Dallas is 3-9 O / U as home underdogs with a minus-7.1 total margin and played at the slowest pace during the regular season.
According to VegasInsider.com, nearly three-fourths of the cash wagered is on the Over, but the total hasn’t budged off the opener and has even been lowered at some sportsbooks.
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).